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EUR/GBP – Daily Report for July 6th (0.87757)
Short-Term Trend – Bearish
Intermediate-Term Trend – Bullish
Long-Term Trend – Bullish
Cyclical Trend – Bullish (turns bearish on a monthly close below 0.7006)
Secular Trend – Bullish (turns bearish on a monthly close below 0.6536)
SHORT-TERM VIEW
At least for now, it appears the British Pound has found some stable ground against the Euro.
However, this is only a temporary reprieve. Eventually, the bullish trend will continue in favor of the Euro. Most likely, the Pound will continue to lose ground against all major currencies (particularly the Euro).
The short-term indicators are painting a very bullish view for EUR/GBP. However, it does appear the market has found a short-term top @ .8879 on June 28th. Based on the short-term indicators, EUR/GBP will trade sideways for the next several trading sessions (as the Euro consolidates its recent bullish move).
The next resistance level for EUR/GBP is the June 28th high @ .8879. The bears need a close below .8648 in order to recapture the downside momentum on a short-term basis. Possible but not likely.
In April & May, the bears made several attempts to push the market below important support levels. However, each attempt was a failure. Going forward, it certainly appears the path of least resistance is to the upside (as the Euro continues to push its way higher against the British Pound).
LONG-TERM VIEW
The “big picture” macro view of Great Britain appears rather unstable as Brexit negotiations begin in earnest. These negotiations are scheduled to last for approximately two years. Therefore, it appears rather unlikely that the British Pound will display any type of stability over the course of the next 18 to 24 months.
The long-term indicators for EUR/GBP are quite bullish. The next important resistance level is .9024. A weekly close above .9024 is quite likely to occur during the next few months. If EUR/GBP penetrates this important resistance level, the market could easily reach parity in 2018 or early 2019.
SHORT-TERM CHART
Please review the attached 3-month chart of EUR/GBP. The market has rallied almost 500 points since May 10th. EUR/GBP is overdue for a period of consolidation. The next important short-term resistance level is .8879. According to the short-term chart pattern, the market will break above .8879 following its period of consolidation.
In order to recapture the downside momentum, the bears need a close below .8648. The current short-term chart pattern is definitely in favor of the bullish camp. Therefore, a penetration of .8648 is rather unlikely.
LONG-TERM CHART
Please review the attached 15-year chart of EUR/GBP. As you can see, the market generated a long-term bottom in July 2015 @ .6931. The bears were unable to penetrate the secular low @ .6536. Therefore, a new multi-year secular bull market officially began in July 2015.
EUR/GBP has the potential to move sharply higher as we move into the final few years of this decade. Based on the long-term chart pattern, EUR/GBP will most likely reach parity within the next 12 to 18 months. A weekly close above .9024 will officially launch the move toward parity in 2018 or early 2019.
EUR/GBP has tremendous upside potential going forward.
SHORT-TERM BUY/SELL LEVELS LONG-TERM BUY/SELL SIGNALS
Bullish breakout @ .8879 Bullish breakout @ .9024
Bearish breakout @ .8648 Bearish breakout @ .7525
