GBP/USD – Daily Report for July 25th (1.30164)
Short-Term Trend – Bullish
Intermediate-Term Trend – Bullish
Long-Term Trend – Bullish
Cyclical Trend – Bearish (turns bullish on a monthly close above 1.5015)
Secular Trend – Bearish (turns bullish on a monthly close above 1.7875)
During the past few weeks, all currencies have generated a rather substantial rally against the US Dollar. This includes the British Pound. The market was able to produce two consecutive daily closes above 1.3047 on July 14th & 17th. Therefore, the short-term view has switched from bearish to bullish.
At least for now, the bulls have the short-term momentum in their favor. The next level of resistance is 1.3125. The bears need a close below 1.2706 in order to reestablish the downside momentum.
Without question, the tone of this market has definitely switched from bearish to bullish. As long as GBP/USD stays above 1.2706, the bulls are in control.
Based on a long-term view of GBP/USD, it’s rather difficult to build a bullish argument in favor of the British Pound. It appears that 2017 has marked the early stages of a new long-term currency cycle. Generally speaking, this new currency cycle will be bearish for the US Dollar.
However, the British Pound could be one of the few major currencies that actually continues to decline against the US Dollar (despite the new currency cycle).
Brexit negotiations could easily continue well into 2019. Consequently, there will be a cloud hanging over the head of the British Pound for the next two years. Most likely, GBP will be unable to gather any type of sustainable momentum in favor of the bulls until there is better clarity on Brexit.
Please review the attached 4-month chart of GBP/USD. The market was finally able topenetrate the short-term resistance level @ 1.3047. Even though the resistance level has been violated, GBP/USD essentially remains locked in a 10-cent trading range between 1.20 & 1.30.
This market is simply consolidating the dramatic move it experienced immediately following the Brexit vote in June 2016. It’s not uncommon for currencies to trade sideways for several months following a very large move.
On a short-term basis, the important numbers to watch are 1.2706 & 1.3125. A weekly close below 1.2706 could send GBP/USD tumbling to the downside rather quickly. Conversely, a weekly close above 1.3125 could open the door to a sustainable bullish breakout.
Please review the attached 10-year chart of the GBP/USD. As you can see, the market has been drifting lower for the past ten years. Based on the current downtrend line, GBP/USD would have to generate a rally above 1.5330 in order to turn bullish on a long-term basis. This seems highly unlikely. Instead, the most likely scenario is a penetration below the October 2016 low @ 1.1710.
Based on the current long-term chart pattern, there’s no reason to expect the GBP/USD bear market to end any time soon. Over the course of the next few years, the British Pound is probably on its way to parity versus the US Dollar ($1.00 per British Pound).
SHORT-TERM BUY/SELL LEVELS LONG-TERM BUY/SELL SIGNALS
Bullish breakout @ 1.3125 Bullish breakout @ 1.5330
Bearish breakout @ 1.2706 Bearish breakout @ 1.1710.